Archive for January 7th, 2008
Bean Dip
MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (CNN) — With two days to go until the New Hampshire primary, a new CNN/WMUR poll out Sunday afternoon suggests that Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois has opened up a double digit advantage over New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
In the survey, conducted by the University of New Hampshire on Saturday and early Sunday, 39 percent of likely Granite State Democratic primary voters back Obama as the party’s nominee — that’s ten points ahead of Clinton’s 29 percent. Obama is up six points and Clinton down four points from our survey conducted on Friday and early Saturday.
Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina is at 16 percent in the new survey, down four points from Saturday. Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico is in fourth place, with the support of 7 percent of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters, with Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio at 2 percent.
Obama won last Thursday’s Iowa Democratic caucuses, eight points ahead of Edwards, who slightly edged out Clinton for second place.
“The poll strongly suggests an Obama surge in New Hampshire. Obama’s gaining about three points a day, at the expense of both Clinton and Edwards. Obama’s lead has now hit double digits (10 points) going into the home stretch. It’s ‘the Big Mo’!” says CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider.
“The Iowa caucus results have convinced growing numbers of Granite State voters that Obama can really go all the way. In December, 45 percent thought Clinton had the best chance of beating the GOP nominee. But in Saturday’s poll Clinton and Obama were tied on that measure and now Obama has a 42 percent to 31 percent edge over Clinton on electability,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
The poll suggests that Sen. John McCain of Arizona remains the front runner in the battle for the GOP nomination in New Hampshire. Thirty-two percent of likely Granite State Republican primary voters are backing McCain, with 26 percent supporting former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Both candidates are down one point from Saturday’s CNN/WMUR poll.
The shakeup on the Republican side is for third place. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, at 14 percent, now has slightly more support than former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, at 11 percent. In Saturday’s poll, Giuliani had 14 percent and Huckabee had 11 percent.
Even though he was vastly outspent by Romney, Huckabee won Iowa’s Republican caucuses, with Romney coming in second.
“Huckabee has switched places with Rudy Giuliani. Huckabee’s got “the Little Mo’’ coming out of Iowa,” says Schneider.
Rep. Ron Paul of Texas is in fifth place at 10 percent in the poll, with Rep. Duncan Hunter of California and former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee both at 1 percent.
For the CNN/WMUR survey, 341 New Hampshire residents likely to vote in the Democratic primary and 268 Granite State residents likely to vote in the Republican primary were interviewed. The poll’s sampling error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.
– CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser
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